Frankly Speaking

Frankly Speaking - Week 35
29 August 2018

Avocado

Despite the weather the teams have continued to pick, pack and ship over the past week, with the rain providing challenges to the harvest teams. Packing has started at Main Road with both pack houses now underway.

The first container of this seasons harvest will arrive in Australia this week, with the avocado’s being supplied to the retail programme. Over the next few weeks we will start supply to the Asia programme which this year includes China for the first time. Seeka avocado’s are planned to go to Japan, Korea, China and Australia. Local market demand continues to be strong.

Kiwifruit

Operationally the team have been busy with kiwifruit load outs of 750K trays last week and 1.2m scheduled for loading this week.

There are 1.4 million trays of Gold3 inventory remaining in store with 50% of this inventory on order. To manage growers late supply and fruit loss, the Seeka Growers Gold pool underwrites the fruit loss at the end of week 35. No one can do worse than the fruit loss in the standard cost model. Your Client Relationship Manager can answer any questions you might have on this mechanism.

Hayward conventional controlled atmosphere stores are being packed without any surprises, and we are pleased with the quality. The remainder of the rooms scheduled for packing over the coming weeks. With orders of 1.3m trays for the next two weeks this level of orders are expected to continue through to week 40, the scheduled finish to the European shipping programme.

The strong shipping demand for Hayward organic continues with orders currently for 50% of the inventory and 100K trays remaining un-ordered, this is in line with the industry.

2018 August Forecast

Zespri have announced their first fruit return for the year. It’s a mixed bag – while Hayward conventional per tray rates are down the increased yields have meant that the average hectare rates are still strong. At this stage there is still no confirmation about crop management. Gold returns continue to be strong.

Fruit Category August per tray August per ha
Hayward conventional $5.47 $64,455
Hayward organic $8.67 $69,663
Gold 3 $10.28 $138,973
Green 14 $6.85 $43,876

Our team is now working through the average numbers to calculate your individual forecast which we will get to you as soon as reasonably possible.

2018 Time Rates

The 2018 time rates have been updated with the August forecast values. These changes for Green conventional have resulted in a further reduction to this year’s time rates. The Green conventional August forecast fruit value has decreased in the time model by $1.00 per tray  [from $5.09 to $4.09] and the average taste payment increasing by $0.05 per tray [ from $2.48 to $2.53]. When the model was set in December 2017 the time rates reduced by 11.6%, a consequence of changes to the fruit loss repack curves.  The change to the August forecast rate has resulted in a further 5.8% decrease.

Green Organic rates have decreased by 0.7% following the August update with the fruit value decreasing by $1.04 per tray [from $7.41 to $6.37] and the average taste value increasing by $0.90 per tray [from $3.44 to $3.34].

Gold3 time rates have increased by 1.5% following the August update. The fruit value has increased by $0.13 per tray [from $6.52 to $6.65] and the average taste value increasing by $0.25 per tray [$5.52 to $5.77].
 

To Seeka’s numbers:



Kind regards

Michael

Seeka Key
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