Welcome to the Week 36 Update.
The Industry is on the home straight with SunGold shipping. At the end of last week Seeka was down to 193k trays in store and this will be down to 110k trays at the end of the week all things being equal. Late fruit quality continues to be good with some recent incidence of SBD however the fruit has travelled very well. Our onshore and offshore performance has been very good. Fruit loss is low.
The Hayward programme continues to be challenging. Fruit quality is quite good however the rework requirements for China supply has seen all fruit for that market being 100% repacked. This has required long hours to be worked by key staff to ensure that Seeka meets its order commitments. Seeka’s fruit loss is alongside the Industry average and offshore fruit quality good.
Yesterday Zespri talked to the Seeka Growers Council about their forecast for the year. The Council challenged Zespri about the timing and accuracy of grower payments and forecast. To be fair to Zespri, they have a new payments team and an accounting system. Zespri has asked the Seeka team to spend some time stepping them through grower payments and forecasting.
The Zespri Industry SunGold returns are estimated at $8.20 per tray, Hayward conventional at $4.21 and Hayward Organic at $6.26. Both the Hayward conventional and organic returns are considered very low and a substantial reduction on last year. These returns might have downside risk still, and removing the kiwistart premium from the return will mean a return of less than $4.00 per tray for many conventional growers.
Seeka will release an individual forecast to growers in the next week. This forecast will take into account all the known factors at this stage and subject to all the normal disclaimers. We expect our SunGold forecast will be well ahead of Industry average, Hayward conventional ahead, and organic behind noting a lower taste profile in our organic crop. We will blog these out to you next week.
At the end of last week Seeka had 4.95m trays of Hayward conventional and 240k trays of Hayward organic in store.
In the case of Hayward, industry discussions have been occurring around the MTS, TZG and the financial mechanisms to reward growers for better tasting fruit for next year. Seeka has been represented by Debbie Oakley and Stuart McKinstry. It is likely that growers will be surveyed by the Industry to ascertain your appetite for changing the percentage of fruit returns applied to taste. This is just an early heads up and we will tell you more about it closer to the time. If you are interested please feel free to contact them in the interim.
To the numbers [as at midnight 11 September]
Last drinks for Byran
Please be reminded that Bryan Grafas farewell will be this Thursday 4pm upstairs at the ASB Stadium. Please feel free to attend.
Changes at Seeka
Please note that with Bryan’s retirement, Simon Wells has been appointed as our General Manager orchards and is replaced as GM Grower Relationships by Annmarie Lee.
Regards
Michael
Seeka Key
Contacts
