Welcome to the week 38 update. Please see the commentary below about taste and some important messages from our team who have worked on this project.
As the Industry heads toward week 40, our SunGold program is right at its end. Fruit loss has been low in this variety and time related earnings excellent. Apart from some recent storage breakdown disorder, fruit quality has been excellent. Average time related earnings across all trays totals $0.36 per tray across all submit trays averaging $0.69 for those trays in the 30/70 main pack pool and $0.522 in the Peninsula pool. Overall our OGR forecast for 2016 totals $8.80 per tray with an average of $9.38 per tray for Kiwistart growers and $8.12 per tray in the mainpack pools. This is an excellent result.
Our Hayward conventional program is continuing smoothly, taking into account crop management and the extra effort required for our China shipping. Fruit loss is on the industry average. Time related earnings now average some $0.16 per submit tray which equates to $0.19 per tray in the time pools. Seeka has been cautious in its approach to the Hayward conventional forecast and as outlined to growers has suppressed its forecast to allow for the remaining uncertainties and anomalies in the Zespri forecast. Our forecast of $4.31 reflects our caution and averages $5.38 per tray to Kiwistart growers and around $4.00 per tray to mainpack growers depending upon the respective pool.
In the case of Hayward organic, fruit is travelling well. Our fruit loss higher than industry average and reflects a low kiwistart market share. Time related earnings totals sum $0.35 per tray with our full year forecast averaging $5.51 per tray with Kiwistart forecast at $7.43 per tray and mainpack growers $5.25 per tray. Our organic crop had a lower taste profile and lower Kiwistart earnings that Industry average. Fruit is however travelling well.
To the numbers [as at midnight 25 September]
Taste – it’s all about the taste – or is it?
Earlier this year when the size of the Hayward crop exceeded 90m trays, Zespri wrote to all growers highlighting the trend of lower dry matter and the increasing yield’s from Hayward orchards. Seeka analysed the statistics and Dr Jonathan Dixon presented that there could be other causes of the lower dry matter other than simply yield including sunshine hours and rainfall.
Zespri has reinstated the Taste Committee and raised their concerns about the trend of increasing quantities of low dry matter fruit and their perception of the impact this was having in markets. Zespri’s position was that incremental change was not acceptable, they wanted a step change. The industry needed to act now to be able to differentiate its Green business from its competitors.
Seeka and its representatives on the committee [Oakley & McKinstry] have remained concerned that no new sensory data has been provided and that the increase of the MTS to 15.5% dry matter late in 2015 has not been given sufficient time to have influenced the taste profile of the crop.
These are significant issues. They change the way Zespri distributes grower monies and may change what fruit they accept to sell. The changes demanded by Zespri last year came very late in the season removing the grower ability to respond.
The committee have reviewed the matters and come up with the recommendations below [and I also outline the Seeka representative’s position]:
1. Maintaining the MTS at 15.5% but enhanced with the requirement that 70% of the tested volume must meet the MTS.
The 70% requirement will mean that a line of fruit will on average have a 15.9% dry matter – Seeka accepted this. But only if the increase in the MTS made late in 2015 is shown to be insufficient to positively affect the TZG.
2. Changing the TZG calculation methodology by splitting the taste buckets with altered weighting.
This will smooth the transition from one TZG grade to another and further incentivise Y and T band fruit. Seeka accepted this.
3. Increasing the MTP to 60%, for either 2017 or 2018 season [timing subject to grower feedback]
This will reduce the amount of money paid in fruit value and increase the amount that can be paid for taste. Seeka did not accept this. Our taste committee representatives were of the view that there should not be an increase to the MTP as growers need time to respond and make changes to on orchard practices. No change should be made to the MTP until the outcomes from the first two recommendations are reviewed in 2017.
Your feedback in this process is important and submissions need to be made by the 30 September to info@nzkgi.og.nz or tastereview@zespri.com.
Please feel free to contact Stuart or Debbie or simply respond with the position above if you accept their recommendations.
Regards
Michael
Seeka Key
Contacts
